1. Emerging market exports have been declining in dollar terms since October 2014, a far longer, if less extreme, losing streak than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, as the first chart shows.
4. 4. China will continueefforts to build out C-9 (the top nine universities in China) in the form ofmore than $1 billion new investments in major campuses. Funds will becommitted to attract top faculty, build state-of-the-art facilities, andrecruit the very best students. China will lock into a global war forintelligence, education, and skill.
For over two decades I have been writing about the rise of Asia and the dynamic driving it. There is an extraordinary consensus among east Asian leaders that Asia needs to use this window of opportunity to focus on economic development and growth. War is the biggest obstacle to development. If Asians were truly stupid, they would engage in such wars and derail their enormous development promise. Most Asian leaders, barring North Korea, understand well the dangers of war. Hence, while there will be tensions and rivalries in the region, there will be no wars in the region, in 2014 or in 2015. As 2015 unfolds, I would like to encourage all western pundits to understand the underlying Asian dynamic on its own terms, and not on the basis of western preconceptions.